Does this election mark the end of Zuma’s political career?

By Imraan Buccus

The 2024 general election in South Africa is all but done and dusted with just the horse trading left. Some startling outcomes signal a seismic shift in the nation’s political landscape. 

Among the most notable is the startling rise of the new MK party and the dramatic decline in the fortunes of the flag bearer of the South African liberation movement, the African National Congress (ANC). Whatever the sentiment, the people have spoken. South Africa’s maturing democracy has shown its capacity to withstand headwinds and aftershocks. The pattern that’s played out with MK’s climb should also be balanced against the volatility inherent in personality-driven politics. One cannot overemphasize the need for enduring democratic institutions to defend and sustain a stable society.

The MK party set the cat among the pigeons by capturing a significant chunk of the vote. Skillfully named after Umkhonto we Sizwe, the ANC’s armed wing during the struggle for South African freedom, the MK party successfully tapped into a reservoir of nostalgia and its now not familiar cousin, discontent. Central to their campaign was Jacob Zuma, whose controversial tenure and ongoing legal battles keep him in the public eye.

Zuma’s role as the MK party’s talisman was more than ably demonstrated. His populist appeal and deep sense of victimhood resonated with a considerable segment of the electorate, particularly those disillusioned with the ANC’s shortcomings. While Zuma’s influence was crucial in mobilising support for the MK party, it is plausible that he may soon be expendable by the party’s shadowy funders and power brokers.

Among these figures is Zuma’s ambitious daughter, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla. Duduzile has been a fervent supporter of her father and played a pivotal, even if internally divisive, role in the MK party’s campaign. Her quite apparent political ambitions and influence within the party hint at a potential shift in the party’s leadership dynamics. Modern political movements often rely on charismatic leaders to gain momentum, but such figures can quickly become liabilities once their initial purpose or poster appeal has been served.

This election may well mark the end of Zuma’s political career rather than a second wind. The allure of personality cults tends to be short-lived, especially as democracies mature and voters demand more from their leaders. While charismatic figures like Zuma can capture public imagination, their influence often wanes as electorates seek payback for their vote and accountability.

The decline of the ANC in this election in spite of its sizeable share of six million votes is a clear indication of the public’s growing intolerance for corruption and inefficiency. The ANC, once the vanguard of the anti-apartheid movement and a symbol of hope and progress, has seen its reputation tarnished by countless scandals and governance failures. The 2024 election results highlight a desire for change and an urgency among voters that alternatives hold promise.

In this context, the importance of robust democratic institutions becomes paramount. Institutions such as the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), Parliament, and the Constitutional Court are the cornerstones of South Africa’s democracy. The IEC’s role in delivering free and fair elections is vital in maintaining public trust in the democratic process. Parliament, as the uppermost legislative body, is essential for enacting laws that reflect the people’s will and needs. The Constitutional Court, as the guardian of the Constitution, courageously upholds the rule of law and intervenes to ensure that governmental actions remain within legal bounds.

The durability and independence of these institutions are what ultimately sustain a democracy, providing stability and continuity beyond the tenure of any individual leader. While charismatic leaders may inspire and mobilise, they cannot replace the foundational structures that underpin democratic governance. The resilience of South Africa’s democracy will depend on the continued strengthening of these institutions, ensuring they remain independent, transparent, and accountable.

This election’s outcomes also serve as a reminder of the fluidity of political fortunes. Jacob Zuma’s legacy is complex; he remains a figure of significant influence, but his political utility will diminish. The MK party’s future, while promising in this election, will be determined by its ability to transition from a personality-driven movement to a credible political entity with a coherent vision and effective policies.

Moreover, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla’s emergence as a political figure hint at both a potential generational shift within South African politics and the horrors of dynastic politics so evident in post-colonial Africa and Asia. Her involvement suggests that the Zuma legacy may persist in some form, but it will need to adapt to the changing political landscape and the electorate’s growing expectations.

May 29th marked a turning point, highlighting the meteoric climb of the MK party and the tumble of the ANC. All should be reminded that personality cults are transient. What matters is the enduring importance of strong, credible democratic institutions. For South Africa’s democracy to thrive, it must continue to build and rely on these institutions, ensuring they are capable of withstanding the ebbs and flows of political fortunes and individual ambitions.

Dr Buccus is the editor of Al-Qalam.