Al-Qalam 
Global Muslims and Four Elections
By Ebrahim Rasool
The year 2024 was always going to be consequential. It inherited the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Israeli genocide in Gaza, which elicited two contradictory responses from Western Governments: outrage about Ukrainian human losses and condemnation of Russia, while Palestinian lives were deemed expendable, and Israel supported with political and military resources.
Secondly, 2024 was consequential because 64 elections were in play globally, with the question of political accountability for those governments and parties at the centre of the hypocrisy displayed in the two conflicts. While this hypocrisy was called out by a diverse range of citizens in these countries, it would be useful to single out an examination of the Muslim translation of their grief and horror about Gaza into democratic actions that utilised their citizenship identity.
In gauging Muslim participation in elections, the obvious indicators would include whether Muslims act in a politically conscious manner, whether there is leadership that tries to intervene in the choices to be exercised, whether this has led to a phenomenon that can be called ‘the Muslim vote’; or when faced with a tragedy that tugs at their Muslim identity, like Gaza, whether they can balance choices in line with other identities, like class. The elections chosen for this exercise are the ongoing one in the USA, the South African general election, the election in the UK, and the snap election in France. All of these have one thing in common. The Palestinian genocide by Israel was now decidedly critical to all these elections.
Michigan, USA – Flexing a Muslim Muscle
On 27 February 2024, in the Democratic Primary across Michigan, but especially in Dearborn and Hamtramck, with over 50% Muslim votes, Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden won a landslide. But this time, his win was not the expected 100%. It was about 600,000 votes, but it was only 81% of the total votes cast. He was challenged by the signed-in vote called “uncommitted”, which was just over 100,000 votes. This challenge was articulated by Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud, Rashida Tlaib and other Muslim leaders, together with their allies who similarly were outraged at Biden and the Democratic Party’s unabashed support for the Palestinian genocide.
In 2020, all these votes went to Biden so that he could beat Trump, which he did by only 154,000 votes in Michigan. This shows the power of these votes in November’s tight race for the White House. The threat of “uncommitted” going national in November or registering behind a Third-Party Candidate like Cornell West may illustrate such a flexing of muscle by Muslims in tandem with other constituencies rather than choosing between horrible and unpalatable.
South Africa – A Perplexing Outcome
The ruling African National Congress (ANC) led the global charge against Israel and forced a prima facie designation of a genocide, and mobilised world outrage against the destruction of Gaza. Ahead of the election on 29 May 2024, Muslim civic and theological leaders from across the world descended on SA to urge for a Muslim vote to return the ANC to power despite significant ANC missteps like corruption and service failures. The result, however, did not depend on the Muslim vote, as the ANC sunk from 57% in 2019 to 40% in 2024. But did the Muslim performance in the election match the Muslim passion for Palestine?
There were flashes of conscience as there was a decline of support for the pro-Zionist Democratic Alliance (DA), ranging from an average of 15% decline in Cape Town Muslim areas to more in the Gauteng Muslim Suburbs. But this did not translate into a significant turnout in favour of the ANC (on average, an increase of between 2% in the Cape and more in Gauteng) or Al Jamaah. The DA (60%) and the other pro-Zionist party, the Patriotic Alliance (10%), still garnered an overwhelming vote in these areas, with the ANC uncompetitive, except in some outlier areas like the Bokaap and Lansdowne.
So, despite a flash of conscience for Palestine by some to withhold their vote from the DA, the majority stayed with the DA, choosing the predictability of DA governance and services. Ironically, Minister Naledi Pandor, who fronted the fight for Palestine, could have entered Parliament if the ANC total reached about 43%. It is too early to tell whether there is anything to be read in the fact that 2024 appears regressive in that this is the lowest entry of Muslims into Parliament and in which, unprecedentedly, the ANC has not selected a Muslim to Cabinet.
Britain – Going Independent
In July 2024, Britain voted, and the Labour Party won a landslide of seats but actually had a reduction of votes, whereas they lost seats in 2019 with a higher turnout of votes. Labour lost votes in areas where the Muslim vote is more than 30%, and here, the Labour share dropped by 29% of votes. If you add these losses to where Muslims are between 15% and 30% of the vote (covering 21 seats), then the total number of votes lost is about 500,000, which is about the drop from 2019 to 2024. In the 21 seats in question, Labour retained – including with Muslim candidates – 17 of the seats. They lost 4 to pro-Palestine Independents, including Jeremy Corbin, while George Galloway lost his seat. Independents could have won more had Muslim independents not split their votes in other seats. Muslims have historically voted for Labour based on socio-economic issues and Islamophobia. But 2024 seems like a similar punishment to Tony Blair’s Labour in 2005 for the Iraq war. This year, the punishment was for Labour’s support for the Israel genocide.
France – Voting for Survival
On 3 July 2024, French Muslim leaders gathered in the Paris Grand Mosque to call for massive mobilisation against the existential threat of the far-right National Rally, which by then had won the first round of the snap elections called by President Macron. The Lyon Grand Mosque similarly pronounced that voting was not only allowed but also prescribed, and in the face of anti-Muslim extremism, voting is obligatory. Muslims historically in France had voted as citizens for left parties because of socio-economic reasons. This had weakened as the left went far-left, secularist, fought culture wars around sexual orientation and supported Zionism. However, in the face of right-wing evil, Muslims had a choice: abstain or make a deal with the Left Unbowed. It split about 50/50. Jean Luc Melenchon was astute enough to take the deal by speaking more inclusively and even holding out support for a Palestinian State. Of the Muslims who voted, it appears that 62% voted pragmatically for the left-wing Unbowed in the second round, based on a strategy for survival.
Are Muslims Learning Strategy & Statecraft?
While there is a significant Muslim vote, there is not a coherent Muslim vote. It is divided between participation and abstention in the first instance. Secondly, it is fickle in that it can show great global outrage but ultimately choose local and domestic priorities as citizens. Thirdly, it can remain loyal to establishment parties – left in the US, UK and France, and right in SA. Fourthly, however, where leadership convenes to deliberate choices and communicate them clearly and collectively, there is movement in a prescribed direction, although not overwhelmingly; and finally, there are emergent signs of strategy and statecraft as seen in the “uncommitted” in the US, the Independents in the UK, and the lesser of two evils in France.
SA Muslims, for long the standard-bearer of political activism, appear to have receded. The test for minority Muslim communities will be how to remain steadfast on global issues as part of a global Ummah and yet have bridges to parties and governments to mitigate domestic challenges as citizens.
Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool is the former Premier of the Western Cape and former ambassador to the U.S.
